The current stock market cycle is characterized by an investment boom in artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and defense. In an interview with Stephan Marti, CIO Matthias Ramser explains the key drivers and what investors should be paying particular attention to right now.
Market commentary Slides (used in the video)
Despite geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, and persistent uncertainty, the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Leading indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices, alongside stable consumer spending and labor market data, suggest that the global economy is likely to continue expanding in the short term. Above all, we are observing a structural shift in the drivers of growth. Expansionary fiscal programs and elevated corporate investment are supporting economic momentum across many regions of the world.
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The war in Iran is now in its fourth week. Despite initial, tentative signs of de-escalation, the conflict persists and is likely to have significant geopolitical and economic consequences. We recommend investing selectively in structural growth themes that are gaining additional momentum as a result of the conflict.
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The apparent calm on the stock markets is deceptive. Although the global stock market recorded a slight increase in February, the US stock market was once again downgraded relative to Europe and emerging markets. At the same time, the rotation away from highly valued technology stocks toward cyclical value stocks and defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples continued.
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Growth prospects for 2026 remain below average, but are robust overall. The stock markets are caught between AI-driven growth in the US, fiscal expansion in Europe, and structural growth in Asia, on the one hand, and ongoing trade conflicts and geopolitical risks, on the other.
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Investments by major technology companies in artificial intelligence are reaching new heights. In 2024 alone, the so-called hyperscalers – Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Co. – are expected to have invested around 200 billion US dollars worldwide in data centres, chips and infrastructure.
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The US government's policies are causing uncertainty and shifting the world order. The most visible sign of this is the significant weakness of the dollar. Europe is investing heavily in infrastructure and defense, while China is seeking new trading partners. We show which investment opportunities this is creating in the regions.
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