Raw materials: “Even things that don’t shine can be gold”

• Sustained tailwind for the gold price
• Other commodities with catch-up potential
• Structural tightness in energy, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities

These structural drivers remain intact. But those who focus solely on gold could overlook the bigger picture. Away from the spotlight, other commodity segments are showing potential for catching up. Energy, industrial metals, and agricultural products are facing structural bottlenecks that could provide price support in the medium term.

A rare combination of tighter supply, rising demand, and a new inflation regime will shape the coming years. Many years of low investment have depleted production capacities in energy, metals, and agriculture. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and increasing protectionism are exacerbating the supply situation.

Energy: Supply constraints meet recovery in demand
Oil and uranium remain attractive energy sources. While economic demand is picking up again in several regions, the supply side shows little flexibility. This suggests that prices will remain volatile but tend to be firm. US shale oil production is approaching its peak, new major discoveries remain rare, and global energy demand is growing. Uranium is benefiting from a renaissance in nuclear energy, driven by new reactors, efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, and tight physical markets. Even forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has historically tended to be overly optimistic about supply, show that the structural tightness of many markets is being underestimated.

Industrial metals: Fundamental shortage of capacity
Copper, nickel, and aluminum are benefiting from structural trends such as electrification, the energy transition, and digitalization. At the same time, supply remains limited: few new mining projects, increasing regulatory requirements, and growing demand from the battery and semiconductor industries are increasingly leading to bottlenecks. The combination of future technologies and physical scarcity makes industrial metals a strategic issue.

Agricultural commodities: Extreme weather and rising demand
Agricultural commodities are also gaining in importance: climate variability and rising production costs – especially for fertilizers – are increasing price sensitivity. The recent sharp rise in fertilizer prices is historically considered a reliable early indicator of stronger grain and oilseed markets. The markets could therefore be on the verge of a phase of stronger momentum.

Hold gold, shift profits into commodities
Gold may be dominating the headlines at the moment, but there are other interesting opportunities emerging in its shadow. Taking a diversified view of the entire commodities complex can help investors capitalize on structural trends while spreading risk. We continue to believe that strategic positioning in gold makes sense. Investors with high book profits can shift some of these profits into other commodities or corresponding stocks in order to broaden their portfolio and take advantage of the existing catch-up potential within the commodity sector.