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Economic developments are currently being shaped by two opposing forces. On the demand side, investments in infrastructure, defence, and AI data centres are driving momentum. On the supply side, demographic change, deglobalization, and the energy price shock are acting as constraints. This combination is inflationary — while the growth outlook remains uncertain.

The war in Iran is now in its fourth week. Despite initial, tentative signs of de-escalation, the conflict persists and is likely to have significant geopolitical and economic consequences. We recommend investing selectively in structural growth themes that are gaining additional momentum as a result of the conflict.

The apparent calm on the stock markets is deceptive. Although the global stock market recorded a slight increase in February, the US stock market was once again downgraded relative to Europe and emerging markets. At the same time, the rotation away from highly valued technology stocks toward cyclical value stocks and defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples continued.